May 5 2012


Let me state my position clearly. I initially did support the Arab spring despite the fact that I belong to the gradual (British) reform school than the (French) revolutionary school. I wrote 6 articles and given two lectures in support of the change because I support the transformation towards democracy and political pluralism.

I have used the term “Explosion” to describe the Arab spring because I think it was rather more of an explosion than a revolution. In other words it is because the old fashioned Sultanic state is not able any longer to cope with modernity which includes meeting the minimum requirement of a modern state. I made it clear that two political systems have become out-of-date, the one party system and the religious system. My concern increases the more I saw the religious parties taking over because I think this will increase the crisis and not solve it .I know that the Islamists were oppressed under these regimes but this does not mean that they have the right to take the power because of that.

I am aware that the road towards democracy is not a one day work. It might take a whole generation and probably more to construct it provided that there is a will and political culture that goes in that direction.
What makes things worse is that the Arab democratic, left wing, liberal, and rational forces are relatively weak and surely unable to meet the current challenges. This note is quite important because it raises a serious question about the political alternative.

I predict that the Arab region and probably the whole Middle East is moving toward Major radical change that would in the long run transform the whole political scene (ethnically ,culturally, politically). The political players are too many with various levels of conflicts: (Arab Israeli conflict, Irani Israeli conflict, regimes opposition conflict, islamists versus democratic forces, sectarian conflict, Irani Turkey interest conflict, the USA intervention etc.) All this in my view is a clear indication that the unrest, and probably the chaos would be the future of the region before the resolution of this conflict and the emergence of a new political scene.